Nationals member for Page Kevin Hogan could be looking for a new job next year if the results of a Fairfax/Ipsos poll, announced today, were replicated at the upcoming federal election.
The poll showed the Coalition on the nose across the country, particularly in NSW and Victoria, with Labor leading on 53 per cent and 56 per cent respectively in two-party preferred terms.
The swings against the government in NSW, if replicated at an election, would see it lose the seat Page, along with Gilmore, Robertson and Banks.
At the 2016 election Mr Hogan retained the seat he won from Labor’s Janelle Saffin in 2013 on a 4.6 per cent margin despite a 2.15 per cent swing against him.
All in all, the Coalition would lose as many as 18 seats if the latest poll was reflected at a general election, including Peter Dutton’s Queensland seat of Dickson.
But more imminently concerning to the Coalition will be the pronouncement that it has a tough battle ahead in the upcoming federal by-elections.
The Liberal and National parties have been boosted by a recent Newspoll claiming they were ‘closing the gap on Labor’, particularly in the marginal seats of Longman (QLD) and Braddon (TAS).
Today’s poll paints a very different picture, however.
Labor’s Susan Lamb won Longman with a 7.71 percentage swing against former LNP sitting member Wyatt Roy in a seat with a significant (9.4 per cent) One Nation vote.
But Ipsos pollsters say even if she directs all of her preferences to the LNP, which she has threatened to do, Labor would still be likely to hold the seat given a significant statewide swing to the party.
The Tasmanian seat of Braddon would be a much closer call, however, with pollsters predicting there is only one percentage point between the two parties.