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Byron Shire
December 6, 2021

Nats set to lose Page: poll

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Nationals member for Page Kevin Hogan could lose his seat at the next election based on figures released by a Fairfax/Ipsos poll. Photo AAP Mick Tsikas

Nationals member for Page Kevin Hogan could be looking for a new job next year if the results of a Fairfax/Ipsos poll, announced today, were replicated at the upcoming federal election.

The poll showed the Coalition on the nose across the country, particularly in NSW and Victoria, with Labor leading on 53 per cent and 56 per cent respectively in two-party preferred terms.

The swings against the government in NSW, if replicated at an election, would see it lose the seat Page, along with Gilmore, Robertson and Banks.

At the 2016 election Mr Hogan retained the seat he won from Labor’s Janelle Saffin in 2013 on a 4.6 per cent margin despite a 2.15 per cent swing against him.

All in all, the Coalition would lose as many as 18 seats if the latest poll was reflected at a general election, including Peter Dutton’s Queensland seat of Dickson.

By-election woes

But more imminently concerning to the Coalition will be the pronouncement that it has a tough battle ahead in the upcoming federal by-elections.

The Liberal and National parties have been boosted by a recent Newspoll claiming they were ‘closing the gap on Labor’, particularly in the marginal seats of Longman (QLD) and Braddon (TAS).

Today’s poll paints a very different picture, however.

Labor’s Susan Lamb won Longman with a 7.71 percentage swing against former LNP sitting member Wyatt Roy in a seat with a significant (9.4 per cent) One Nation vote.

But Ipsos pollsters say even if she directs all of her preferences to the LNP, which she has threatened to do, Labor would still be likely to hold the seat given a significant statewide swing to the party.

The Tasmanian seat of Braddon would be a much closer call, however, with pollsters predicting there is only one percentage point between the two parties.


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6 COMMENTS

  1. Yes, Nationals member for Page, Kevin Hogan could be looking for a new job next year but he won’t be as there is a proviso “if the results of a Fairfax/Ipsos poll, announced today, were replicated at the upcoming federal election.”
    The real results will be in the by-elections later this month, especially in Qld as the Northern Rivers is culturally connected to Queensland and the Greens candidate in Page is not known too well in the local area. I will put my bet on that Page won’t be turned over to Labor if I read the book correctly.

  2. The overall state polling for NSW won’t necessarily be reflected in the seat of Page. Newspoll shows little swing in this seat.

  3. The National Disability Insurance Scheme seems to have decided they would rather put my adult foster daughter who has multicomplex disabilities and a very sad history of trauma into a group home against her will rather than continue to pay me the equivalent of a small foster care allowance for her 24 hour accommodation supports.

    I’ve asked Kevin if he would be prepared to speak out in Parliament about the situation she and many other people with disabilities and no birth family to support them who have aged out of the foster care system are facing. If he would help to be part of a solution.

    I’m waiting to hear what he says.

  4. Funny how Newscorpes would have you believe the new way the’ve made their poll fairer when their poll doesn’t reflect the others.

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