Beyond the froth and bubble of the daily political soap opera, there are some major threats confronting Australia and its government.
Our supposed ally the United States of America is still coming for our Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, the $18 billion medicine subsidy system which keeps many Australians alive, described by the powerful US pharmaceutical lobby as an ‘egregious and discriminatory’ trade instrument. How dare our country lobby collectively to lower the prices of medicines as its population ages?
Never mind the fact that US pharma companies are treated no differently to those from the rest of the world, over the next twelve months we can expect the attacks on the PBS via tariff threats and other thumbscrews to ramp up from the Trump regime and its corporate backers.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has previously said the PBS is ‘not for sale and not up for negotiation’. Will his government continue to stand strong?
Palantir
When it comes to another major threat from the United States, Australia has already let the drawbridge down and invited the barbarians inside.
Named for Tolkien’s magical crystal balls by someone who clearly missed the whole point of ‘Lord of the Rings’, Peter Thiel’s digital surveillance company Palantir has contracts with a range of companies and government departments here, including Coles, Rio Tinto, Westpac, the Victorian Department of Justice and the federal Department of Defence.
The Future Fund has over $100 million invested in Palantir.
This is the company that Amnesty International has reported as facilitating serious human rights abuse for its role in the Israeli Defence Forces’ attacks on Gaza and during US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations
Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp recently published a manifesto which brought to mind the ramblings of a Bond supervillain, calling for the end of ‘postwar neutering’ of Germany and Japan, describing some cultures as ‘dysfunctional and regressive’, saying AI weapons were inevitable, and calling for conscription in the USA, along with AI surveillance of citizens. He has also talked about disrupting the power of educated, female voters.
One of the few politicians concerned about the risks of Palantir becoming embedded in Australia is Greens Senator David Shoebridge, who has described the company as a ‘fascist political project’.
Oil
While the outward manifestations of bowser shock have receded temporarily from Australia, thanks to a number of government interventions, the war in Iran has not been resolved and the underlying issues remain. Government stockpiles in places like Japan and Korea are being steadily drawn down.
Oil is now flowing to Asia’s refineries from non-Gulf states, benefiting the United States and other exporters such as Russia (now free of sanctions, despite its ongoing war against Ukraine).
Wealthy customers such as Australia have been able to secure alternative supplies, for now, while poorer countries continue to face major fuel spikes that are raising the costs of everything, with the loss of fertiliser that once moved through the Strait of Hormuz putting further pressure on international food production.
In an interdependent global economy, Australia can’t insulate itself from these factors forever. While the oil shortage is driving the renewable energy transition, it’s also accelerating the gap between rich and poor, making the world more dangerous, and prone to the appeal of tribal populism.
Good times for demagogues
With polls showing the rise and rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, upcoming elections will show whether racism and slogans can trump meaningful reform in Australia, or whether we’re as easily led into the swamp as voters in the United Kingdom and the USA.
It’s worth remembering that at this point in the last electoral cycle, the likes of Murdoch and Rinehart, and their mouthpieces in the mainstream media, all thought Peter Dutton was home and hosed. Will Albo wriggle out of this one too?
Unfortunately, history shows that the worst things get, the more fertile becomes the ground for ‘strong’ leaders presenting simplistic solutions.
The biggest threat to Australia, underlying and driving all others, remains the climate crisis and the breakdown of the natural world. In the absence of a meaningful, science-based response from our political leaders, these will be very good times for false prophets.
Originally from Canberra, David Lowe is an award-winning filmmaker, writer and photographer with particular interests in the environment and politics. He’s known for his campaigning work with Cloudcatcher Media.
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