The fate of some federal lower house seats could hang in the balance for two weeks.
The Australian Electoral Commission says it has to wait 13 days from now for all of the postal votes for Saturday’s federal election to come back to the home electorates.
‘Given it’s a close election, we have got to wait for 13 days for all of the postal votes to come back. Really for a couple of the seats, we could be waiting for that period,’ commissioner Tom Rogers told Seven’s Sunrise on Tuesday.
AEC spokesman Phil Diak said the full make-up of the Senate could take four weeks or longer to determine.
‘Previous elections show that the Senate can take easily four weeks to complete in some states, sometimes a little more,’ he told ABC radio.
‘The nature of counting is that you need to have all of the votes in the system before you can distribute preferences.’
He said the AEC focused on Monday on getting absentee votes back to their home electorates, where they are checked against the electoral role and counted.
‘That’s a very big logistical exercise and it involves hundreds of thousands of votes.’
WITH NEARLY 10 OF THE 15 MILLION VOTES ALLOCATED: Labor 50.2pc Coalition 49.8pc Swing against the coalition 3.7pc
THE SEAT COUNT SO FAR: Coalition 69 Labor 67 Greens 1 Independent 4. In doubt 9
HANGING IN THE BALANCE:
* Capricornia (Nationals QLD): Sitting MP Michelle Landry is trailing by nearly 1000 votes in this Rockhampton-based seat. In 2013, postals flowed strongly to the Nats to give them a narrow victory. It could easily happen again.
* Chisholm (Labor VIC): Given to the Liberals on the night but late counting favoured Labor’s Stefanie Perri. She trails Julia Banks by just 49 votes. Postal votes went strongly to the Libs in 2013 which gives them an edge this time around.
* Cowan (Liberal WA): Looked like a Labor gain on election night but its candidate Anne Aly might get run down by postal votes by the time the count is finalised on Friday week. Sitting MP Luke Simpkins picked up 62pc of them in 2013. That would be more than enough to make up the 925 votes he’s behind at the moment.
* Dunkley (Liberal VIC): A 5.3 per cent swing against the government has put this Liberal seat on the Mornington Peninsula in doubt. Liberal Chris Crewther is leading by 438 votes. More pre-polls and postals likely to break his way.
* Forde (LNP QLD): Labor’s Des Hardman leads sitting MP Bert van Manen by 149 votes in this Logan electorate south of Brisbane. Postals likely to favour the Libs. Too close to call.
* Gilmore (Liberal NSW): Liberal Ann Sudmalis leads by 405 votes with 85 per cent of the vote counted. Postals likely to get her over the line in this NSW south coast seat.
* Grey (Liberal SA): A slow preference distribution in this regional SA seat makes its outcome uncertain. With five of the 124 booths finalised Nick Xenophon Team candidate Andrea Broadfoot leads sitting MP Rowan Ramsey by 782 votes. NXT hopes the big booths in Port Augusta and Whyalla go its way.
* Herbert (LNP QLD): Sitting MP Ewen Jones is trailing Labor’s Cathy O’Toole by 905 votes, but the race is far from over in the Townsville-based seat. Postals, especially from defence personnel, will strongly flow to Jones. Line-ball.
* Hindmarsh (Liberal SA): Former Labor MP Steve Georganas leads by 432 votes with 78 per cent of the count finalised. Sitting MP Matt Williams will have to rely on postals in this Adelaide seat. Down to the wire.
BEST GUESS OUTCOME: Coalition 75 Labor 70 Greens 1 Independents 4 SEATS LABOR PICKED UP FROM THE COALITION: Bass, Braddon, Lyons (TAS); Burt (WA), Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie (NSW); Flynn, Longman (QLD); Solomon (NT).
COALITION LOSS TO NICK XENOPHON TEAM Mayo (SA).
LIKELY SENATE OUTCOME Coalition 30 Labor 27 Greens 9 Nick Xenophon Team 3 Independents 7
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING ”I expect the lead will see-saw a bit in a few seats.” - Senior Labor MP Chris Bowen.
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