The Northern Rivers has experienced dramatic weather conditions over the past few weeks in what has been a soaking start to 2025.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) long-range forecast shows a continuation of these wet conditions, with above-average rainfall likely to swamp the Northern Rivers with 400-600mm of rain to fall over the next three months.
The BOM also forecasts warmer than average days across southern and eastern Australia, and an increased chance of high overnight temperatures across the country.
Despite the rain and thunderstorms, temperatures will remain in the high 20s and reach the 30s across the coming weeks. Humidity percentage will remain in the 70s and 80s, and may extend to 90 per cent later in the week.
Severe storms and flash flooding
The BOM released a severe weather update over the weekend, delivered by Senior Meteorologist Angus Hines.
The update forecasts severe storms that could deliver heavy rain and lead to flash flooding across Australia’s east coast, including the Northern Rivers.
‘We’ll see extensive stormy weather yet again, all across the eastern side of the country,’ Hines said.
‘It’s really following that daily cycle that builds through the early afternoon, with the most active period being the late afternoon and the evening, and then starting to subside again overnight.’
Hines warns that the severe storm impacts can include flash and riverine flooding, dangerous driving conditions and poor visibility, alongside damage to crops, trees and property.
Is La Niña back?
Recent and expected ongoing rains have led to predictions of the return of La Niña to Australia.
La Niña refers to a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the subsequent shift in global weather patterns, including a strengthening of moist easterly winds blowing towards Australia which in turn brings rainfall.
Usually, La Niña forms in winter, peaks in late spring and then gradually weakens through summer. This would be the fourth occurrence of the great rainmaker in the past five years in Australia.
La Niña returning in the middle of summer would be only the second instance since the 1950s, according to ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders.
Possible signs of a La Niña phase moving across the Pacific include stronger trade winds than normal, cloudiness shifting from the International Date Line to Indonesia, and the tropical Pacific sub-surface being cooler than normal.
Intense La Niña events may last for years and lead to widespread flooding, seen as recently as the 2022 floods that swept across the country’s east coast.
In December, the BOM changed how they communicate climate indicators, including the retirement of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dial that indicates the current status of dry El Niño and its wet weather sister La Niña. This change means the BOM will no longer issue La Niña watches or alerts.
Staying Safe, not Soaked
The NSW Government recommends several apps including Hazards Near Me, Live Traffic and Emergency Plus for current information and updates on floods and bushfires, and advice on how to stay safe.
For Emergency Help in Floods, call the NSW State Emergency Services (SES) on 132 500, and for safety advice visit the FloodSafe website.
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