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Byron Shire
September 21, 2023

Planet will likely clear 1.5°C barrier for the first time before 2027

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The prospect of a strong El Niño event and increased greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere has prompted the World Meteorological Organization to up the likelihood of the world exceeding one of the Paris Climate Agreement’s climate thresholds.

The WMO now says there’s a 66% chance average global temperature will be 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at some point in the next five years.

El Nino is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that tends to bring drier weather to Australia

On top of this, it’s near certain that one of those years will be the warmest on record, and that 2023-27 will be the warmest five-year period yet, although it is unlikely to be above the threshold across that average period.

These findings headline the latest climate update from the WMO, which only last year considered it an even chance that 1.5°C would be breached before 2027.

But while it’s probable that the planet’s average temperature will move beyond 1.5°C at some point soon, it will likely be short-lived. Indicators suggest it will become a permanent situation at some point in the 2030s on current trajectories. In isolation, Australia’s leading scientists indicate the continent’s climate is hovering close to that limit.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years,” says WMO secretary-general, Professor Petteri Taalas.

“However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment.”

Kids born today face a far more extreme future than their parents and grandparents say scientists

The Paris Climate Agreement signed in 2015 preferred to keep global temperatures beneath the 1.5°C mark, while setting a firmer 2°C target before the end of the century. The world’s current carbon mitigation efforts are likely insufficient to prevent that temperature increase being exceeded.



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This article was originally published on Cosmos Magazine and was written by Matthew Ward Agius. Matthew Agius is a science writer for Cosmos Magazine.

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  1. Bla Bla Bla.. just more alarmist paranoia
    Report last week the Barrier reef in great shape
    Government releases it on-line where nobody
    Could see it ..Cosmos you know this ..why have
    You not enlightened us on ghe good news ..
    Incidentally this is not just some conspiracy
    Theory either even the ABC have admitted
    Kicking and screaming.. 10.000 yeaes ago it was warmer ice cores ..you know the one’s Cosmos
    That scientists have done all the studies..
    Not one F positive article you have for us loyal readers have you ? Well this is one regarding
    Our Barrier reef.. try and Debunk those findings
    Cosmos..because it have been the very opposite
    You have been reporting on ..!!

    • Yes, Barrow,
      “Government releases it on-line where nobody Could see it “(sic) that’s because they don’t want to be laughed off the face of the planet !
      The Great Barrier Reef is irreversibly dead or dying, but the government is terrified of affecting the tourist industry ( as was seen when it was, quite correctly, about to be listed as endangered, but all the propaganda in the World can’t change the facts ).
      The fact is we have long ago passed the 1.5C milestone or tipping point, and CVS is correct the ” irreversible chain of feed back events, ” are beginning to unfold, have a look at the last five years and then project the parabolic progression of change on a Worldwide basis, with quite a few nasty surprises that haven’t been predicted.
      Cheers, G”)

    • Barrow, Barrow, Barrow, we know what a champion you’ve been for Our Reef and for Science.
      Our Reef, in great shape you crowing again.
      Best you stop taking your cues from The Daily Murdoch and Sky stuck in the Dark TV when trying to take down scientific research.

      It pointless me asking I know, hope is eternal, l’ll give a go anyway.
      Have you bothered yourself to read the GBRMPA report, Reef Snapshot: Summer 2022-23?
      Our Reef in “great shape”, you posit. The overall report is a mixed bag at best.

    • Craig,
      Anyone who thinks the reef is in great shape has their head firmly planted up theirs.
      Go & have a look.
      And furthermore the earth was NOT warmer 10,000 years ago, that has been thoroughly studied & debunked.

  2. No no no. No back-pedalling. You guys said if it hit 1.5 it would cause an irreversible chain of feed back events, and we’d all be doomed. If we are going to ignore the raw data from the CRN and the like, then it’s time to declare it’s too late, and start building coal fire powered plants, as China and India are, so we can have reliable power for our aircon. No need to end up like Sri Lanka or South Africa. Right?

    • CVS, National Bushfire Apocalypse 2019-20, the Flood Destructions around the nation in 2022 and 2023, these not enough doom for you?
      Its being repeated around the planet and you want to keep going with the cause, continued burning fossil fuels.
      But hey, you do have a convert here in Australia, The Federal ALP Government is bringing it home – More and New coal and gas is the ALP way!

      • By George I think I’ve got it! Could it be that you are really an undercover agent for the beleaguered LNP? Be careful such levels of ardour might give the game away!

        • Lizardbreath, nice try with with attempted sideshow distraction from deliberate ALP actions to approving more and new fossil fuel adventures that flies in the face of the climate science. What part of the climate science is impossible for you understand?
          Oh I get it now, its all good the ALP talking the huge game on climate and cutting emissions but deliberately sets about to deliver more and new fossil fuel projects. You just couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

          • No I don’t think everything the ALP do is just hunky dorey – believe it or not I can be quite objective!
            But I do get frustrated with supposed progressives who think all you have to do is sound virtuous, demand everything, create wish lists and think it’s productive to work as hard as possible to oust from government the party that has been responsible for all the important changes this country has seen and has been way before the Greens emerged.

            I just can’t understand that refusal to look reality in the face. But maybe that’s doing a Joachim.

          • Lizardbreath;
            The reality of the climate emergency and the climate science = No New Fossil Fuel Adventures.
            Please send that to ALP Canberra, they deliberately doing the opposite. That is the reality.

            But when we have the correct climate way, the Greens, that faces the reality and task of what needs to be done…..its nah, not having it, just a cue for nonsense diversion that covers for ALP not taking the action that the climate science tells needs to be down.

  3. It’s so hard to read articles like this but more so the comments like those above. So few humans seem capable of empathy for our earth. I see so many parallels between human trauma and the trauma that earth is suffering. And between abuse of a human body and abuse of the earths body. It’s the same! As a survivor of abuse myself it’s all too clear. The worst part of the abuse experience is the secondary abuse – the systemic denial and disbelieving of the victims story, and the protection of the perpetrators. It’s exactly the same.

  4. The temperature recordings are massaged to indicate a rise, that is evident from examining our very own BOM. The global warming, climate change hoax is being exposed, ask Ian Plimer, Jennifer Marohasy, Patrick Moore and thousands of scientists throughout the world. Our Great Barrier Reef is undeniably healthy contrary to the lies being told. Every decade or so the do-gooders revise their dooms day prediction a further decade ahead as the pesky climate will not cooperate with their narrative. We are getting a little tired of this garbage so go away.

    • More garbage clinging to any feint hope.
      BOM has not & does not “massage climate data”.
      Plimer is a discredited geologist paid mouthpiece for the fossil fuel industry.
      Marohasy is an insect scientist & paid commentator for the vile IPA.
      Moore pops up everywhere defending environmentally damaging industries & practices.
      They have three things in common: no expertise in the relevant fields (climate science, meteorology, statistics, atmospheric physics or chemistry); being paid right wing commentators; & none have done any research or published any papers for decades.
      As for the Reef being “undeniably healthy” whaaat? Either UNESCO is in on the conspiracy too or someone has rocks in their head.
      The doomsday predictions keep happening because nothing has changed.

      • When police training leads them to kill a lot of people, we don’t say it’s a conspiracy among every police officer to start depopulating the country. Yet when it’s climate, or covid, or whatever – out come your strawman arguments, and you proceed to tell us what we must ‘really’ be saying.

    • Ah yes, the BoM conspiracy to fiddle weather data, its been going on for years as the anti-climate science brigade always desperately clutching for a new life raft to keep their wet dream alive – that there just isn’t a climate issue needing to be acted upon.

      The BoM has always refuted any claims of ‘fiddling’ with data.

      Of course the Greg and the Barrow could do some basic reading, look up the BoM website and dial up, “FOI30/6147 Bureau of Meteorology
      Material is redacted with consent of the applicant unless otherwise labelled. ”
      The accusation of ‘fiddled data’ is addressed.

      For the Greg and the Barrow, more broadly, if exception is taken to climate data homogenization, then please do take your whining to the WMO, I’m sure they’d love to hear your scientific experience showing it part of a climate conspiracy.


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