Will Albo go to an early election? Anthony Albanese has been ‘hoist by his own petard’, meaning he is about to be blown up by the [political] explosives that he planted.
He has locked himself into an impossible situation with his dogged determination to not break election promises.
While that is admirable, especially when the electorate is used to governments making promises only to break them the minute they are elected, such a rigid position does not allow for rapidly changing circumstances and budget blowouts.
He promised to introduce a referendum to give First Nations people recognition and a Voice guaranteed by the Constitution.
The moment Peter Dutton decided to use this as a political weapon, the referendum was as good as dead. Of the 45 referendums held, only eight have passed and all but one had bipartisan support from both major parties. Despite overwhelming odds, with barely a two per cent chance of success, the PM pressed on to fulfil his promise.
Even though Labor opposed the enormously expensive Stage 3 tax cuts when introduced by the Morrison government, Albo made an election promise not to repeal them. These tax cuts mostly benefit high income earners and will cost the budget an eyewatering $313 billion over ten years.
The Australia Institute surveyed 1,600 Australians, and only 17 per cent supported keeping them. Twenty five per cent favoured scrapping them altogether, and 44 per cent think they should be restructured to give more benefit to middle and low income earners.
Despite less than one in five polled supporting these tax cuts, it would appear the Albanese government would rather make spending cuts, like those just announced to infrastructure projects, than risk the wrath of the Murdoch shock jocks and attacks from Dutton’s mob.
Those infrastructure cuts will cost jobs of traditional Labor supporters, as well as making life difficult for Labor governments.
Much has changed since the election in May last year, including worsening impacts of global heating. Fear generated by wars and climate impacts has a tangible effect on economies. People tend to clamp their purses and wallets shut – it’s the sea anemone effect. Disturb the waving tentacles and they’re withdrawn rapidly.
We are living in volatile and uncertain times. There was a recent article in The Economist entitled: The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last.
Jamie Dimon, chair of JP Morgan, America’s largest bank, said the combination of Israel’s war on Hamas and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have produced ‘the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.’
These conflicts potentially have ‘far-reaching impacts’ on energy prices, food costs, international trade and diplomatic ties.
Albanese and his government may feel the need to renew their mandate before the budget situation worsens. Either that or start breaking promises.
The lack of tax reform in many areas, including capital gains tax gutted by John Howard, and these Stage 3 tax cuts, severely tie the hands of the Albanese government when they need to assist struggling battlers.
Fabian-style government
Albo wants to make Labor the natural choice of government and to do this he feels he can’t be as radical as Gough Whitlam, who changed the face of Australia in three turbulent years.
A Fabian-style softy-softly approach simply can’t work though in these tumultuous times.
He needs to bite the proverbial bullet and behave like an authentic Labor government.
Bob Hawke won office convincingly for Labor in March 1983, after seven years of LNP rule. He stayed on as prime minister until 1991, having had four consecutive election wins.
In December 1984, Hawke went to an election 18 months early on a flimsy pretext, but perhaps the real reason was he was much more popular than opposition leader Andrew Peacock.
Hawke had an approval rating as high as 75 per cent while Peacock rarely scored over 40 per cent.
If Albo wants to stick with his promise of not scrapping or tinkering with the Stage 3 tax cuts, yet wants to claw back the money for health, education, climate action and housing, he would need to call an election around March 2014, 14 months early. He would need to spell out the reforms in his election campaign and lock them into his renewed mandate. Calling an early election may not be popular with voters, but it may be the only option he leaves himself.
It’s also a risk going early, but it may be an even greater risk for him going full term. The economic situation may well deteriorate.
When people are hurting, they blame the government, even when it is completely out of the government’s control. He could lose office after three years having achieved relatively few reforms.
His honeymoon is well and truly over. His polls are beginning to sag. If he waits full term the people may want a divorce altogether, especially if he has crippled the budget by not recovering those billons a year going to the wealthy. He might be well advised to contemplate these matters on his Christmas break.
♦ Richard Jones is a former NSW MLC, and is now a ceramicist.
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