The eyes of Australia turn this week to the electorate of Dunkley in Victoria, historically the site of the Frankston riot and just down the road from where Harold Holt disappeared. Now it’s the location of an all important federal by-election.
The electorate was created in 1984. Named for the trade unionist and campaigner for equal pay for women, Louisa Dunkley, it’s since swung between Labor and Liberal, most recently being won by the courageous ALP member Peta Murphy, who took on the gambling industry and cancer before the disease claimed her at the age of 50 in 2023.
The Dunkley by-election is being seen as a test for the two federal leaders, as well as the high profile negative campaigning strategy of the right wing organisation Advance, which used American-style tactics of high octane disformation to such effect against the Voice proposal last year.
Apparently emboldened by that result, Advance is spending big on targeted social media advertising in Dunkley to swing the seat back in the Liberal direction, although their PR material has nothing useful or substantive to say about Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy – it’s all negative, and it’s all about attacking Labor, particularly over rising prices and asylum seekers.
Truth trucks
Dunkley residents who avoid social media aren’t safe from Advance’s onslaught, with the electorate constantly being circled by so-called ‘truth trucks’, large mobile billboards featuring a scowling Albo with scary block print saying ‘WE’VE ALL HAD ENOUGH. PUT LABOR LAST.’
This is the same approach which was used intensively against Dan Andrews, and is likely to be seen all over Australia at the next federal election if it achieves the desired result here. With 56 per cent of Dunkley voting No in the Voice referendum, Peter Dutton and friends will be hoping Anthony Albanese will be seen as out of touch by locals struggling with cost of living issues.
Advance is not openly stating its close connections with the Liberals, although these have been well documented elsewhere. Labor is more alive to the challenge than at the time of the referendum, with members being urged to donate to ‘fight Advance’ and Anthony Albanese telling Melbourne radio this week that the group spreads ‘a whole lot of misinformation’.
One Nation and Clive Palmer are not running candidates in Dunkley, which means anyone wishing to use their vote to put the boot into Labor over cost of living issues will likely be heading in the Liberal Party’s direction.
Their candidate is local mayor Nathan Conroy, who was born in Ireland and has since run an inner Melbourne bowls club he describes as a ‘multimillion-dollar business’. Labor’s state MP for Frankston Paul Edbrooke says Mr Conroy is gilding the lily. As he put it, ‘There’s a pretty big difference between answering to the board of a multimillion-dollar company and selling hot dogs and parmas.’
Two dogs and a mortgage
Labor’s candidate for Dunkley Jodie Belyea is a tertiary teacher and women’s health advocate who lives and works in Frankston, presenting herself on Instagram as a typical middle-class Australian with ‘two dogs and a mortgage’.
She has emphasised her links with the popular previous member, saying ‘Peta and I shared a passion for making a difference in our local community,’ which is backed up by her time working for TAFE and Anglicare.
Labor have a 6.3 per cent margin in Dunkley, very winnable for the Liberals based on previous by-election experience against a sitting government (Aston notwithstanding), which is why Peter Dutton is dog whistling louder than ever on asylum seekers and his other favourite issues. The Liberals simply have to be able to win outer suburban seats like Dunkley if they can no longer count on the wealthy inner suburban dwellers voting blue, and not teal.
The Dunkley by-election falls on Saturday 2 March, which is also Mr Albanese’s birthday. Will the changes to Stage 3 tax cuts keep the battlers’ baseball bats at home? Will Albo’s wedding announcement soften the hearts of voters? Will fear and PR money deliver another dark victory for Advance and the Liberals?
For both federal leaders, this by-election is likely to result in ripples which go way beyond the Mornington Peninsula, and indeed Victoria.
Originally from Canberra, David Lowe is an award-winning film-maker, writer and photographer with particular interests in the environment and politics. He’s known for his campaigning work with Cloudcatcher Media.
Long ago, he did work experience in Parliament House with Mungo MacCallum.
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