Buckle up peeps, the federal election is May 3, and there are ten candidates for the marginal Richmond electorate who are vying for your precious vote.
In last week’s ballot draw, Greens candidate Mandy Nolan was first out of the bag, which means she has the advantage of being placed number one on the ballot.
To be a valid vote, all squares must be numbered consecutively from 1 to 10.
If voters simply number down the ballot, an advantage would be received by the higher candidates.
According to think tank www.australiainstitute.org.au, ‘topping the ballot is worth about one percentage point. Maybe a little more in electorates with younger voters and where fluency in English is lower’.
While the main three parties – the Greens, Labor and the Nationals – traditionally attract the most votes, preferences will flow to them from minor parties and independents.
Libertarian line-up
The minor candidates and independents are dominated by policies that embrace the expansion of fossil fuels, cutting red tape, and freedom of speech.
Some of these parties could be described as ‘libertarian’ – which is a philosophy that advocates limited government intervention in the free market and private lives of citizens (independent Kevin Loughrey, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, the Libertarian Party, and Gerard Rennick’s People First).
It’s very likely that their votes will flow towards the Nationals, as they have in the past.
The National Party is again represented by Tweed councillor and business coach, Kimberly Hone. Her party’s primary vote declined by about 13.5 per cent in the 2022 election, compared to the previous 2019 election.
The Legalise Cannabis Party will likely preference the Greens, while the policies of Independent James McKenzie are, according to his previous candidacy, ‘exposing that Wollumbin, Arakwal and Bundjalung National Parks are fake, [and] that Bundjalung is a white man’s fabrication’.
Meanwhile, incumbent Labor MP Justine Elliot faces tough opposition from Greens candidate Mandy Nolan, who is again running for the seat.
Labor v Greens
In previous years, strong Greens votes in Byron Shire have led to preferences flowing to Labor, which has helped Mrs Elliot retain the seat since 2004.
The seat is considered marginal, given the vote difference is just 1.8 per cent between Labor and the Greens.
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