Greens supporters and other minor party voters are still waiting for some acknowledgement from Anthony Albanese for delivering his record majority in the House of Representatives, via preferences, while over in the Senate it’s looking like a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Final preferences are yet to be distributed, but of the 40 seats up for grabs this time in the red chamber, five remain in doubt. Labor is likely to end up with 28, and the Coalition 26. The Greens will hold 11 seats.
28 plus 11 is 39, which is more than half of the 76 seats in the Senate, giving the currently leaderless Greens the whip hand over Labor. For all the talk of mandates and majority, this is what the Australian people have chosen, and neither Albo or Advance can do anything about that now.
David Pocock will return on the progressive side of the ledger, along with Lidia Thorpe (ex-Greens) and Fatima Payman (ex-Labor), but the mathematics mean these representatives will be of diminished importance this term, along with whoever ends up remaining from the parties of Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie.
Clive Palmer’s relic senator Ralph Babet and Lambie deserter Tammy Tyrrell will also be occupying seat space for a few more years.
No love for Senate
Few prime ministers have had any love for Australia’s federal house of review, which acts as a check on the government of the day, and has more power than most upper chambers around the world.
Senate committees are also an important way of maintaining government accountability, both in terms of spending and policy questions.
John Howard called the red chamber ‘the house of obstruction’ and Tony Abbott described the occupants as ‘feral’. In 1992 Paul Keating came up with his famous ‘unrepresentative swill’ line. At issue is the fact that tiny territories get more representation per capita than large states, but this was necessary to get Federation over the line.
Major parties can’t stop voters aggregating across states like they do across lower house electorates, which is why there are so many Greens in the Senate, and so many Nationals in the House of Representatives.
The fact that voters continue to vote differently in the upper and lower houses suggests that they appreciate the value in the system, regardless of prime ministerial teeth gnashing.
So what can we expect?
Before he disappeared from the political scene, Adam Bandt pointed out that the only obstacle to ideas like getting dental into Medicare, free child care and preventing fossil fuel expansion was the Labor party. In the glory days, these would all have been Labor policies anyway, which shows how far the party has drifted to the right.
Progressive voices within the government can now use Greens’ intransigence as cover for improving Labor positions, while other factions have the option of watering down their proposals to gain the support of the Coalition in the Senate, as happened more than once in the last term.
After becoming stuck in the mud on various issues over the last few years, then hurriedly rushing through multiple bills, the new Albanese government will hopefully be more strategic, less confrontational, and more inspirational, but with Penny Wong likely to continue as the Leader of the Government in the Senate, a radical change of approach seems unlikely.
Much is likely to hang on the choice of new leaders from the Liberal, Greens and National parties, expected later this week.
Originally from Canberra, David Lowe is an award-winning filmmaker, writer and photographer with particular interests in the environment and politics. He’s known for his campaigning work with Cloudcatcher Media.
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