The latest release of previously secret Cabinet papers, from 2005, show that John Howard and his government were perfectly aware of the dangers presented to Australia by the emerging climate crisis, but chose to bury their heads in the sand.
A detailed submission to Cabinet by two senior ministers at the time, Alexander Downer (Foreign Affairs), and Ian Campbell (Environment) noted that:
‘The climate is definitely changing. There is clear evidence that global and Australian average temperatures increased during the late 20th century. The pace of global temperature change is unprecedented in human history, with the current atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide 30 per cent higher than at any time during the past 400,000 years.
‘There is new and stronger evidence that the observed changes in climate are in part applicable to human activities.’
The report goes on to say that serious planetary transformations, such as decreases in Arctic sea ice and increases in ocean acidity, ‘are occurring more quickly than previously predicted’, noting that the evidence showed Australia was even more vulnerable to climate change than other developed countries (including the USA and those in Europe), with serious impacts expected on ‘water resources, agricultural systems, electricity supply, transport infrastructure, human health, urban and coastal communities, and tourism.’
With repeated instructions not to be copied or reproduced, the Cabinet document then predicts ‘more frequent and intense bush fires’, increased salinity and erosion, and southward movement of weeds, pests and diseases, with thermal inertia meaning that any action taken immediately wouldn’t have any noticeable effect for years.
‘While there are some outliers, the international scientific community is in broad agreement on the science of climate change,’ the document warns.
‘The magnitude of the mitigation challenge is huge. Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that some 26 billion tons of carbon dioxide will need to be displaced by 2050 to achieve carbon dioxide levels double pre-industrial levels. This is equivalent to replacing 7,800 conventional 500-megawatt coal power plants with “zero emission” plants.’
Man of steel or man of blancmange?
So what did John Howard’s government do with this information, which was delivered by their own trusted people, and informed by the latest science? Did they invest bigly in solar energy, stop burning and exporting coal, and start riding their bikes to Parliament House?
No, none of that, sadly. They maintained their earlier decision not to ratify the Kyoto protocol on carbon emissions (which came into effect in 2005), rejected recommendations to strengthen Australia’s renewable energy target, and flatly refused to consider an emissions trading scheme.
A couple of years later they finally accepted the need for such a scheme, as a response to the charging behemoth of Kevin07, but it was much too late by then, and John Howard and his government were swept from office.
The pathetic, fossil fuel directed machinations of Howard’s successors, including Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison, ultimately led to the Coalition’s ludicrous current position, of abandoning net zero and climate science completely, despite the worst predictions of the secret 2005 report all coming true by 2025, and then some.
Former environment minister Ian Campbell managed to retain some shreds of dignity after leaving politics, joining the International Advisory Board for the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, while fellow Liberal Alexander Downer became one of the ‘outliers’ mentioned in his own report, questioning climate science and the need for net zero policies while in the employ of News Corp.
Nostalgia for the future
In 2005, the youthfully idealistic Downer closed his report to Cabinet with these words, ‘Australia should continue to emphasise the importance of practical climate change policies and measures – and practical adaptation measures – in our bilateral and regional partnerships.’
In November of 2025, an older but apparently not wiser Alexander Downer wrote in the Adelaide Advertiser, ‘the only thing truly settled is that the planet has warmed since the Industrial Revolution… we should not spend more mitigating climate change than the economic damage it would otherwise inflict.’
Whatever the price of mitigating the disastrous effects of climate change in Australia, if such a thing is even possible, it’s now exponentially higher than it was 21 years ago, when John Howard’s government had the opportunity to act and did nothing.
Listening, Albo?
Originally from Canberra, David Lowe is an award-winning filmmaker, writer and photographer with particular interests in the environment and politics. He’s known for his campaigning work with Cloudcatcher Media.
For four decades The Echo has printed the stories some people loved, some people hated, and some pretended not to read. If you want us to keep telling the truth, the real truth, not the sugar-coated version. We’ll need your support to keep the presses rolling. 
