The federal electoral race for Richmond was officially too close to call as counting finished Sunday but a nation-wide so-called ‘Labor landslide’ looked likely to include the marginal seat.
Incumbent Justine Elliot appeared set to beat any odds against her that may have been cast when she missed out on the donkey position on Richmond ballot forms, with the tally showing a slight improvement for the incumbent on first preference votes compared to the 2022 election.
Votes cast in 62 of 67 polling booths across the electorate were accounted for by 12.11pm Sunday, representing 97,583 people compared to nearly 127,000 registered to vote in Richmond.
The only uncounted polling place votes were from specialist hospital teams.
Meanwhile, there were more than 6,000 postal votes received and yet to be tallied compared to more than 11,500 issued and more than 10,700 formal postal votes in 2022.
Postal votes in 2022 favoured Labor on both first preferences and in the two-candidate preferred count against The Nationals.
Hogan reclaims Page for The Nationals
More than 7,000 votes were classed as informal, slightly more than seven per cent of those tallied, compared to an overall figure of 6.92% in 2022.
The tally showed a very small increase in informal votes locally but it was higher than a national figure in 2022 of 5.19%, suggesting room for improvement in voting process education.
The number of informal votes counted in the nearby seat of Page was worse, at 8.33%.
Kevin Hogan for The Nationals was showing a confident return, with results tallied for 98 of 99 booths in Page and the conservative incumbent sitting on nearly 60% of the two-candidate preferred vote, against first-time Labor candidate Wendy Backhous.
Swings towards all three major contenders for Richmond
Meanwhile, Mr Hogan’s party colleague, Kimberly Hone, was showing improvement in her first-preference vote tally in Richmond compared to her first run in 2022.
Ms Hone was close to having won a quarter of first-preference votes counted, at 24.59%, an increase of 1.52% compared to 2022.
But she was again running in third place, with Labor and The Greens each having also experienced small increases to their primary vote counts.
Mandy Nolan was again showing a positive swing, this time of 1.88%, slightly higher than the party’s stated target in the election campaign of 1.8%.
But the figure ducked below The Greens’ target at various points in the weekend tally and was ultimately unlikely to be high enough to counteract the combined effects of positive swings for her two main competitors and Ms Hone’s assurance that she had secured preference arrangements with all other minor party candidates and Independents except Legalise Cannabis.
Labor’s Justine Elliot was in the lead on first preferences at 30.19%.
Ms Elliot was showing a positive swing of 1.39% for Labor, whereas in 2022 she suffered a negative swing of 2.91%.
Voting for Independents and minor parties besides The Greens showed an overall downward trend across the electorate, with 18.08% of first preferences tallied compared to 22.6% in 2022.
But preferences would again determine the final winner of the same three-way race that has characterised the marginal seat of Richmond in past recent elections.
Recent Richmond tradition: Greens get Labor over the line
Labor was ahead of The Greens and The Nationals, in that order, on first preference votes in the Richmond tally in 2022 until votes from the Liberal Democrats were distributed in the final exclusion of other minor parties and Independents.
Gary Biggs for the Liberal Democrats secured 7.7% of first preference votes, the highest of any minor party besides The Greens in 2022.
The bulk of the preferences went to Ms Hone for The Nationals, propelling her from last in the three-way race to first while The Greens failed to benefit enough and fell from second to third.
The rest is history and played out as per tradition in seats where The Greens vote is high: Labor needed, and gained, the minor party’s preferences in order to win.
A midnight turning point
This year, The Greens were at one point ahead of Labor in the weekend tally of first preference votes, with the count suggesting Labor might need preferences from The Nationals to cross the line.
Refreshed results at around 12.20am Sunday placed Labor ahead at 29.56%.
But Ms Hone was again likely to move ahead to first place in the tally based on the first preference arrangement and votes for minor parties besides The Greens and Independents, and even excluding Legalise Cannabis.
Depending on preference flows from Legalise Cannabis, Labor could have either won or lost the final count – a maintained lead over The Greens would likely have continued tradition with subsequent preferences from The Greens.
A majority of Legalise Cannabis preferences to The Greens would have seen Labor preferences come into play for a final playout between The Greens and The Nationals.
Legalise Cannabis candidate for Richmond Vivian McMahon preferenced Mandy Nolan for The Greens in the number two spot on how-to-vote cards.
Too close to call: preferences at play present possibility for change
By lunchtime Sunday, Ms Elliot was on a first preference lead of 30.19% for Labor compared to Ms Nolan on 27.15%, a record high for The Greens, and Ms Hone on 24.59%.
Ms Hone again looked likely to take the lead on preferences after distribution of Independents and minor parties besides The Greens, with or without help from Legalise Cannabis.
With almost 4% of first preference votes tallied, Legalise Cannabis votes would still potentially shift power between Labor and The Greens.
But most analysts including the ABC were expecting Labor to maintain the lead over The Greens and to again take the seat as it would be an extremely tight, if not highly implausible win for The Greens.
Discounting Legalise Cannabis, Ms Elliot would have to fail to gain as much as one per cent from preference distribution besides The Greens, which was also highly implausible.
It was also possible, though unlikely, for Ms Hone to fail to gain enough preferences to follow through to a lead, in which case preferences from The Nationals could come into play.
Still, the possibilities existed and so the seat remained too close to call, although it was unlikely The Nationals would win unless the weekend trend changed significantly.
Increased support for One Nation
Taking a closer look at first preference numbers for minor parties and Independents could reveal clues and invite speculation for those inclined.
Mr Biggs didn’t run in 2025 and the Liberal Democrats rebranded to the Libertarian Party, with Ian Willis as the candidate in Richmond.
This time the party was tracking at just 1.52% of first preferences, suggesting a significantly reduced influence.
The minor party with the highest proportion of first preference votes besides The Greens was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party at 5.22%, compared to 4.08% in 2022.
The figure was towards 6% at one point over the weekend.
This year the party featured a local First Nations candidate, in contrast to the Queensland-based white woman considered a ‘ghost candidate’ in 2022 by virtue of her minimal engagement across the electorate during her campaign.
Ian Mye said he was born in Kingscliff and spoke passionately about local issues including homelessness, crime, incarceration and aged care at a Richmond Meet the Candidates forum hosted in Byron by Echo Publications and Bay FM Community Radio.
He also cited immigration as a major factor in Australia’s housing crisis and singled out Indian migrants as a community to have been accepted into the country in large numbers.
More information on the candidates featured in the forum is available here.
Minor/Independent break-down
Turning to some of the other minor parties and Independents running for Richmond, Clive Palmer’s investment in the region was yielding less votes in 2025 compared to 2022 when his United Australia Party won 2.93% of first preferences.
Trumpet of Patriots candidate Phillip Peterkin, who brought a prop that appeared to be a sceptre to the forum, invited the audience to peruse his Facebook page for there was ‘much enlightenment to be found,’ and said, ‘I think you can see my vibration right now… yeah’, was tracking at 1.84% of first preferences.
There were three Independents running for Richmond in 2022, and only one of them achieved more than 2% of first preferences, David Warth, who went on to win a seat on the Byron Shire Council.
In 2025 there were only two Independents running and neither had reached 2% of first preferences by midday Sunday, with Independent James McKenzie trailing last in the tally at 0.89% and Kevin Loughrey sitting on 1.62%.
The other newcomer to the race in terms of so-called libertarian candidates was Gerard Rennick People First with Roger Curtain, who had managed to win 3.21% of first preference votes tallied despite the party being founded by someone largely unheard of on the Northern Rivers until this election.
Legalise Cannabis, meanwhile, was on 3.78% of first preferences.
Increased progressive vote trend with ABC red-green prediction
All up, progressive votes in the likes of Labor, The Greens and Legalise Cannabis represented 61.12% of first preferences compared to a combined Greens/Labor first preference total of 54.07% in 2022.
Ms Elliot had won nearly half the total progressive vote in her own right but it was the ‘nearly’ part that made for the crucial ‘too close to call’ status.
Labor’s incumbent in the marginal seat of Richmond was yet to comment publicly on the tally by end of day Sunday.
The progressive vote was also already higher than Labor’s two-candidate preferred win of 58.23% in 2022, almost certainly ruling out the possibility of a conservative change in 2025.
The only truly relevant question seemed to be: which of the two progressive candidates would take the lead in the final count against The Nationals?
There appeared to be hope yet for The Greens and their supporters and still a possible threat to Labor, albeit unlikely.
The ABC was predicting preferences to favour Labor and The Greens above The Nationals, putting The Greens in second place at 42.2% compared to 57.8% for Labor.
The ABC’s expert projection, updated more recently than the publication of midday’s tally, said the Australian Electoral Commission had abandoned its Labor-National preference count on Saturday night.
Labor’s Richmond campaign
Formerly detained Australian Wikileaks founder Julian Assange posted to social media in the leadup to the election in support of since re-elected Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Mr Assange said Mr Albanese had consistently advocated for his release over many years and credited him as the only Australian prime minister out of seven during the time of Mr Assange’s detention to have met with his lawyers.
It’s unclear if this message, which included personal references to a friendship with Mr Albanese, had an impact on Richmond voters but the Northern Rivers has long been a stronghold for Assange supporters.
Across the country, Labor members and voters have cited Medicare, HECS relief, other cost-of-living measures and a strong aversion to former coalition leader Peter Dutton and the party’s nuclear energy policy as motivations for first-preference voting that has awarded the incumbent government with an expected record comeback into majority.
In the marginal seat of Richmond, Justine Elliot was seen and heard pushing the same points while taking care to remind voters of how the coalition and The Greens delayed approval of Labor’s housing bill in parliament.
While her opponents accused her of doing nothing for the electorate, referring repeatedly to an acute housing and homelessness crisis, and Ms Hone saying she hadn’t achieved any local projects, Ms Elliot was able to list a handful on the record including two housing projects aimed at helping women and children fleeing domestic violence.
More health facilities and services were promised for the electorate in the event of a Labor win, including mental health services in the Tweed and an urgent care clinic which will add to the existing service in Lismore further south in the Page division.
Ms Elliot was also able to cite figures in the thousands of people she said have benefitted from Labor’s introduction of free TAFE courses, alongside party promises of increased childcare subsidies and tax cuts.
Her responses to questions on the contentious issues of human rights and gambling questions were less promising, with both matters spoken about passionately but ultimately only committing to more discussion and in the case of gambling reform, review of recommendations made in the report led by the late Labor MP Peta Murphy.
Possible markers of Richmond’s three-way race
Climate change and housing were probably the two main issues in the Richmond electorate and were also the two main issues The Greens focussed on in their campaign.
Given Mandy Nolan’s record high number of first preferences, it was too early to determine whether they played a part in Ms Elliot’s modest but positive swing, in what could be a slight difference in voter consideration compared to other seats where The Greens were losing votes.
Conversely, a majority electorate vote against The Greens could reflect a possible national backlash against The Greens over their prolonged resistance to Labor’s housing bill.
Ms Hone, meanwhile, appeared to be making up for some of the lost Nationals’ ground in Richmond electoral terms since Labor’s takeover more than two decades ago.
Her local campaign and that of many of the candidates who agreed to preference her featured a promise to push for the reopening of Wollumbin’s peak to the public.
All three women in the race for Richmond ran relatively high-profile campaigns and were well known across the electorate with distinct collectives of supporters within local communities.
Each candidate said they had more volunteers than before helping at pre-poll booths and were handing out more how-to-vote cards, adding to a story of what has been a highly engaged Australian voting public this election.
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