Last Tuesday, AusPoll released their survey of Farrer voters showing voter intention: One Nation (28.7 per cent); Independent (23.3 per cent); Libs (19.1 per cent); ALP (9 per cent); Undecided (8.6 per cent); Nationals (5.2 per cent); Greens (3.9 per cent); Other (2.2 per cent).
The same evening, Nationals leader David Littleproud suddenly called a press conference to announce his resignation. Why? Because he feels ‘buggered’; he ‘has no energy’. He is proud of his legacy and wants to preserve it by resigning. (Huh?) Did he have any regrets? ‘Nah’.
‘I don’t think there has been a leader since Black Jack that’s achieved what I have done’.
Barnaby Joyce remarked, ‘When I heard he said he was proud… and compared himself to Black Jack [John] McEwen, I didn’t know whether that was pathos or AI interfering with my news.’
Mr Joyce has a point. Mr Littleproud himself admits presiding over ‘the worst Coalition loss in modern history’; the loss of three Nationals MPs – Andrew Gee (Ind); Jacinta Price (Lib); Barnaby Joyce (ON); splitting the Coalition twice and tearing down the Liberals’ first female leader. But all this was because he was a victim of other people’s mistakes.
He portrayed himself as the most courageous and accomplished leader since ‘Black Jack’ McEwen retired 57 years ago.
In other words, greater than say, Doug Anthony (Nationals leader 13 years, deputy prime minister ten years), and Tim Fisher (leader nine years, deputy prime minister three years, and crucially delivered post-Port Arthur gun law reform).
Even I loved and admired those legendary Nats. They never traded humility for such hubris. Mr Littleproud’s five per cent of the vote in Farrer is nothing to brag about. Farrer is the electorate Mr Fisher held strongly for 17 years.
David Littleproud’s destructive Coalition splits and interference in Liberal leadership would have been unimaginable by any of his predecessors.
Mr Littleproud’s Tuesday evening press conference blindsided even his own party colleagues who had to meet the next morning to elect a new leader.
Apparently, he hoped the element of surprise would help install Kevin Hogan as his replacement. The plan faceplanted when Senator Matt Canavan was elected instead.
Mr Canavan’s elevation seems remarkable given he is in the wrong chamber of parliament and cannot face the prime minister or Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Question Time or the looming Budget debate.
But Mr Canavan wasn’t chosen for the fight against Labor. His immediate priority is to take on the ‘existential threat’ of One Nation, whose leader Pauline Hanson is also in the Senate.
It is said there are two types of contributors in politics – ‘wholesalers’ (who are heavy lifters in policy) and ‘retailers’ (who are excellent communicators).
Most pollies can be categorised as one or the other. Bob Carr and Bob Hawke were famously charismatic, articulate communicators but left the deep policy reform work to others. Nick Greiner and John Hewson were policy wonks who both attributed their losses to being ‘no good at (retail) politics’. To be successful a political party needs both wholesale and retail MPs.
Two examples of rare leaders who managed both were Paul Keating, who pioneered and sold superannuation reform, and John Howard who introduced GST.
It is however possible that Matt Canavan, with a strong background in economics, could be another combined ‘wholesaler’ and ‘retailer’. This helps us understand why he has been sprung from the backbench to lead the Nationals – because under Littleproud they were sorely lacking in both.
Matt Canavan offers genuine hope for his team but also presents new hurdles for the Coalition.
At some point he will need to move to the Lower House. This is always a delicate operation.
It helps that Mr Canavan was born on the Gold Coast and grew up in Brisbane. The Queensland LNP is one party so he will not be blocked from running in any seat. Even so, federal electorates are tightly held and fiercely defended. Capricornia (between MacKay and Rockhampton) has a retiring LNP member and may be an option.
Mr Canavan is often criticised as ‘erratic’. I disagree, because he is extremely consistent on policy. I would say he has a Tony Abbott-like ‘impulsiveness’ and that’s the real risk. So it is timing and pugnaciousness that he needs to work on.
The third challenge is a vexed one for the Liberals. To recover National Party votes from One Nation Mr Canavan will fully deploy his populist persona and unplugged policy positions opposing climate action, and pushing tax reforms (like income splitting that reinforce traditional roles for women). An ‘Australia First’ campaign perceived as anti-multiculturalism will also seriously undermine Liberal moderates in metropolitan ‘must win’ seats.
If saving the Nationals means collateral destruction of the Liberals, then I am sure Matt Canavan is fully capable of doing that. He wants to remodel conservative politics with hard-right policies and is in a hurry to get there. It’s going to be interesting.
Lennox Head-based Catherine Cusack is a former NSW Liberal member of the New South Wales Legislative Council (Upper House).
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