Chris Dobney
A Roy Morgan poll shows the Greens’ Dawn Walker ahead of the Nationals’ Matthew Fraser in Richmond and within striking distance of beating Labor’s sitting member Justine Elliot.
The State of the Nation Poll shows Richmond is the fifth most likely federal seat to fall to the Greens nationwide, and the second most likely in NSW.
The poll has the ALP marginally ahead on 30.5 points, Greens with 29, LNP with 27, and others with 13.5.
If those numbers were replicated at the election Ms Elliot would scrape back in on Greens preferences.
Ms Walker has massively improved her position from 17.69 per cent at the last election, partly on the back of voters’ disenchantment with the major parties.
The big loser is the Nationals’ Matthew Fraser, whose first preference vote has nosedived from 37.6 per cent at the 2013 election.
On the back of the poll Ms Walker said the party had ‘a chance to make history in the northern rivers.’
Boundary changes have also helped the Greens, with the seat taking in the town of Nimbin for the first time.
But Ms Walker said the party didn’t simply expect the seat to fall into its lap.
‘The Greens growing team of volunteers have knocked on over three thousand doors and made more than four thousand calls to voters. The message we’re getting is people are unhappy with the old parties and are looking for an alternative,’ she said.
‘Locals are increasingly seeing that the Greens aren’t afraid to speak up for what matters because we aren’t beholden to big donors. We act in our communities’ interests.
‘I’ve been down at the early voting polling booth in Tweed and the people coming through are very supportive.
‘Only the Greens have the courage and vision to take action on the things that matter like the new economy, tackling climate change and protecting farmland and water from coal seam gas.
‘With two weeks to go and our campaign reaching new heights and a scale greater than ever before, I am confident that the Greens can win the seat of Richmond.’ said Ms Walker.
Meanwhile Ms Elliot said she was not taking the seat for granted.
‘Each election is a challenge and I‘m out there every day fighting hard on important local issues like protecting Medicare from Malcolm Turnbull and the Nationals’ cruel cuts,’ she said.
Hi, this story contains a few errors:
1. Nimbin is no longer in Richmond due to a boundary change.
2. If these numbers were replicated at the election Ms Elliot could scrape back in on NATIONAL PARTY preferences, as the Nats are preferencing Labor above the Greens. Obviously that would depend on whether the Nationals finish second or third after minor party preferences are distributed.
typical National Party, true to form – absolutely silent. Surely they were invited to comment in this story but silent. Their lack of response show show to every serious thinker that the Nationals try to sneak their way into getting elected and then do nothing. Vote anyone but the do nothing Nationals.
You can see who has the money to get votes. This page has 4 adverts for NATS Fraser. I’ll vote Green (mind you I am in Page!!!)
On those figures for Richmond, if Dawn Walker passed the ALP on primaries, NAT preferences would still be enough to elect Labor. She really needs to get near 40% + minor candidate preferences to succeed. However, if Labor’s primary vote fell below the Nationals, Walker might just be elected on ALP + minor party preferences.
We face something similar in Wills in Melbourne with Greens and ALP neck and neck. But the ALP deal with the Liberals means Labor will almost certainly be elected on Liberal preferences. Greens vote looks to have lifted by 14%, and Labor’s dropped by 10%. Greens would need to lift another 10% for a reasonable chance of winning without conservative preferences.
On the bright side, Alex Bhathal’s Greens campaign in Batman against Labor’s David Feeney is looking really good and may well succeed. Had the pleasure of meeting Alex on a few occasions and she will make a great Greens MP. A strong VoteClimate campaign in Batman is underway with thousands of electorate scorecards being distributed which recommends a vote for a climate independent, Renewable Energy Party or Greens over Labor or Liberal.
The fall of preferences to Labor is to be expected and is the preferential system working correctly. Most Liberal voters would prefer to live with a Labor voice than the Greens. By its rejection of immigration policies that are unpopular with the majority of Australians and its failure to provide and realistic alternative in a world of 60+million displaced people, the Greens have alienated many potential supports who support their environmental concerns. The Greens will win more voters when they focus on better environmental protection and active transport and other energy use alternatives,and stop being distracted by poorly thought through polices in response to emotional issues like immigration.