As Australians head into another election season just as many parts of the east coast are recovering from ‘unprecedented’ flooding since February, and the national psyche is still reeling from the trauma of the ‘unprecedented’ Black Summer bushfires before that, it is critical now more than ever to vote according to your environmental conscience and fear for the future. Now is the time for widespread recognition that for the last 30 years, our political parties (and the coalition in particular) have so far spectacularly failed to fully recognise the then emerging (and now blindingly obvious) climate crisis, and to act in a way that is in any way proportionate to the dangers that we faced, and are now living through.
Predictions of more extreme drought, fire and flood are here
For indeed, what we are currently witnessing is the ramping up of the frequency and severity of natural disasters that was predicted by scientists over thirty years ago. In 1990, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) First Assessment Report warned that ‘climate change causes increased frequencies of droughts and fires’, and that ‘losses (of forests) by wildfire will be increasingly extensive’. It predicted that ‘fire severity will increase’, and also stated that ‘the predicted changes in climate may also affect the frequency and intensity of coastal storms and hurricanes’.
In 1995, the Second IPCC Assessment Report identified many potentially serious climate change impacts and confirmed that ‘warmer temperatures will lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle; this translates into prospects for more severe droughts and/or floods in some place’. It reported that ‘several models indicate an increase in precipitation intensity, suggesting a possibility for more extreme rainfall events’, and predicted ‘an increase in the occurrence of extremely hot days and a decrease in the occurrence of extremely cold days’ owing to global warming. The report also predicted ‘an increase in some regions in the incidence of extreme high-temperature events’ and that all these different impacts would have ‘resultant consequences for fires, pest outbreaks, and… primary productivity’.
Twenty-seven years ago, the IPCC predicted that the near-term impact of climate change on ecology, society, and the economy would be as a result of changing the intensity, seasonal timing, and spatial distribution of storms, floods, and droughts. On the coasts, it stated that ‘climate change clearly will increase the vulnerability of some coastal populations to flooding and erosional land loss.’ It also stated that ‘coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs, were particularly at risk from the impacts of climate change’, and predicted that ‘changes in these ecosystems would have major negative effects on tourism, freshwater supplies, fisheries, and biodiversity’.
A mere three years later, in 1998, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) experienced its first widespread mass bleaching of corals, coinciding with the first global mass coral bleaching event that year, which was owed to a particularly strong El Niño event (which is typically associated with hotter, drier weather in eastern Australia).
One stitch in time is now nine…
Two decades into the 21st century and we have witnessed so many of these predicted natural disasters that have occurred on an unprecedented level – either in terms of intensity or spatial extent. Only three years ago, many parts of Australia were in the grip of the most severe drought on record – in 2019, our rainfall was the lowest since records began; many towns ran out of water and had to truck water in. This drought, along with ‘unprecedented’ extreme heatwaves, saw much of eastern Australia burn in the Black Summer bushfires, the extent and ferocity and impact of which were ‘unprecedented’.
Fast forward two years (through a global pandemic!) and so far this year is currently the wettest on record in many parts of Australia. ‘Unprecedented’ rainfall has contributed to widespread, devastating floods along the already La Niña-sodden east coast, not once, but twice in a period of just over a month. While no single flood is directly attributable to climate change, physics dictates that as our atmosphere warms, its capacity to hold moisture increases (at an increasing rate) – it can hold around seven per cent more moisture per degree of heating. As Australia has warmed by 1.4 degrees since temperature measurements began this means that weather systems are being supercharged by all that extra heat and moisture in the atmosphere.
The oceans are also heating at an alarming rate. Recently, the Great Barrier Reef experienced its sixth mass coral bleaching event and the fourth mass bleaching event in the last six years. This should set some pretty loud alarm bells ringing, since scientists have established that damaged coral reefs need at least 9–12 years to fully recover from bleaching events and an insufficient gap between recurring bleaching events will hinder the full recovery of a coral reef.
What’s even more concerning than the unprecedented frequency and scale of coral bleaching events seen so far is that, for the first time since records began, this year’s bleaching occurred under La Niña conditions, which usually means cooler, wetter conditions on the east coast. This points to just how much the heating of the planet has warmed the oceans that a cool, wet La Niña summer could result in another reef-bleaching event. Only the stout-hearted would enquire about the odds of the reef not bleaching for long enough to allow it to fully recover on our current emissions trajectory.
This observed increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters that we are currently enduring is very good evidence that our climate has already changed, and the scientists’ predictions of 30 years ago are now our lived reality.
What’s more, the same scientists who first predicted these impacts of global warming are telling us that unless we dramatically reduce carbon emissions as fast as possible, and change the way live on this planet, things are only going to get worse. If we continue on the same path, there is a danger the impact of the term ‘unprecedented’ on a disaster-weary population will be (has been?) dulled through overuse. It would be a pity if the increasing use of the language of disaster actually led to a numb complacency and stymied much-needed action.
Split-brained, alien-handed climate policy in Australia
Of course, it would have been much easier, and far less costly, to avoid these impacts of climate change if we had listened to the scientists 30 years ago and acted appropriately. But we, the voting public, have been subjected to, and have largely lapped up, the lies, spin, and propaganda of the fossil-fuel industry and the vested interests within our political class, whose modus operandi has been to deny the science for as long as politically convenient. When denial was no longer politically feasible, the current government has striven to be seen to be doing something while getting away with doing as little as possible.
Except for actual emissions reduction from Gillard’s carbon-pricing mechanism, Australia has frittered away three decades during which we could have been steadily working to smoothly veer our society onto a climate-sustainable path. Instead, despite both sides of politics being initially on board with the idea of taxing carbon, we have failed to act with the appropriate urgency and now find ourselves trying to save our civilisation from the approaching raging inferno with a garden-hose-grade climate policy.
A policy which – in an expensive exercise in deckchair rearrangement – has seen the current federal government commit a billion more dollars to saving the Great Barrier Reef from everything from poor water quality owing to runoff, to crown of thorns starfish and illegal fishing but not committing to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Meanwhile, the NSW government has indeed committed to this, and even committed to a 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, which is in line with what the science says is necessary – but then recently approved a $400m coal mine expansion in the state’s northwest that would result in almost half a billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
If ever there were a time to close the gap between politically feasible climate action, and what the overwhelming majority of climate scientists deem necessary to avert a climate catastrophe in the coming decades, this is it. The scientists are telling us ‘it’s now or never’. Without ‘immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors… it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The next few years are critical, so this coming election is the one where we must demand that our politicians act according to what the science says needs to be done.
Else, one could well characterise the 30 years of IPCC reports as the scribblings of a Cassandra figure (cursed to utter true prophecies to disbelievers) in an evolving Greek tragedy set on a planetary stage, where a deeply flawed protagonist (Humanity) is either unwilling or incapable of averting a looming climate crisis, and only gradually gains the courage to act decisively after the possibility of changing the course of events has passed. These sorts of plays tend not to end well. We have been warned…
Author
Dr Willow Hallgren is an earth-system scientist who studies the impact of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity, the feedbacks between vegetation and the climate, and how policy can influence climate change, by changing how we use the land.
Willow has previously worked as a climate and biodiversity scientist in government, industry, and academic roles in both Australia and the USA at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). She was also previously the Science editor of Monash University’s student newspaper Lot’s Wife and the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.
She is a city escapee of many years now and is currently hiding out among the hill tribes of the beautiful Tweed Valley.
For four decades The Echo has printed the stories some people loved, some people hated, and some pretended not to read. If you want us to keep telling the truth, the real truth, not the sugar-coated version. We’ll need your support to keep the presses rolling. 
