While Richmond obsesses over the tussle between three fiery female candidates, in neighbouring Page the Nationals’ MP Kevin Hogan is coasting to almost certain victory over his outgunned Greens opponent Luke Robinson and a Labor candidate who’s unknown in most of the electorate, Wendy Backhous.
Before she switched to state politics, Janelle Saffin held Page from 2007 and 2013, and another Labor member held the seat from 1990 to 1996, but apart from that, the National Party have kept the electorate containing Lismore, Casino and Grafton locked down.
The affable Hogan, formerly a teacher, hasn’t done anything obvious to deserve his long tenure. He’s been an undistinguished performer in parliament, making a fuss about crossing the floor while not actually doing so after the fall of Malcolm Turnbull, and assisting Barnaby Joyce in various capacities before Joyce was sidelined and confined to home pastures after one too many alcohol-assisted PR disasters.
When Kevin Hogan first won Page, in 2013, it was rumoured that his campaign benefited from the largesse of Gina Rinehart, whose support was no longer needed to prop up Barnaby Joyce in New England – long-time opponent Tony Windsor decided to quit politics for health reasons before the poll.
Whatever the truth of that, anyone who has visited an election booth in Page in recent years can’t fail to notice the large number of young people in Nationals shirts. If you talk to these people, as I have, you discover that most of them are not farmers’ kids, or baby bush socialists, but short term employees, brought in from the cities and paid well to present the appearance of a united, youthful front.
With the Nationals, what you see is not necessarily what you get. On the floor of the parliament, what was once the farmers’ party behaves increasingly like the miners’ party, and these are fundamentally competing interests. It’s hard to see what most country people get out of the Coalition, apart from the trappings of ancestral tribalism and the odd whiff of power.
How to vote
Speaking of power, it’s been alarming to see Nationals and Liberal how-to-vote leaflets across the country preferencing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as number 2 in the Senate, and also in many Reps contests.
Mild-mannered Kevin Hogan, for example, is suggesting supporters put One Nation at number 2 in the Senate, followed by the almost equally noxious Family First and then Clive Palmer’s absurd Trumpet of Patriots. Over in Richmond, Kimberly Hone’s HTV suggestion for the Senate is identical.
In the House of Reps, Kevin Hogan has One Nation’s candidate in position 3 (with no sign of party affiliation), pipped at the post in this case by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate, for those voters who can be bothered researching who he is. Hone’s HTV has One Nation’s candidate’s name at number 2 (again, without saying who he represents).
In this matter, the Nationals appear to be following instructions from their masters the Liberals, not just in the Northern Rivers, but right across the country. It’s hard to overestimate what a big change these preference decisions represent in Australian politics. With One Nation not showing any signs of moving to the left over the years, the only possible conclusion is that the Liberals and Nationals have moved firmly to the right.
One Nation, or the complete opposite?
When Pauline Hanson’s divisive racist agenda first appeared on the scene, John Howard did all he could to marginalise this new threat.
According to Hanson, it was Howard and his ally Tony Abbott who engineered her 2003 imprisonment on electoral fraud charges. At the same time, Howard integrated aspects of One Nation’s policy platform into the Coalition, beginning the steady slide that has led Australia to this point.
Now the two former enemies have joined forces.
Fulfilling their side of this dirty bargain, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the other right wing fringe parties are urging their supporters to deliver second preferences back to the Liberal and National Parties – anything to keep the Greens out. They are being supported online and at the booths in this endeavour by Advance employees posing as impartial community advisors, openly lying about progressive policies and candidates, as is perfectly legal in Australia’s flawed electoral system.
Of course it’s up to you, the voter, to decide who actually gets your preferences, so do your research before you get to the booth, and seek more than one opinion. If you can’t find out anything about a candidate, don’t vote for them!
The federal election will be held on Saturday, 3 May.
Originally from Canberra, David Lowe is an award-winning filmmaker, writer and photographer with particular interests in the environment and politics. He’s known for his campaigning work with Cloudcatcher Media.
For four decades The Echo has printed the stories some people loved, some people hated, and some pretended not to read. If you want us to keep telling the truth, the real truth, not the sugar-coated version. We’ll need your support to keep the presses rolling. 
